Rock Breaks Scissors: A Practical Guide to Outguessing and Outwitting Almost Everybody

Although I am engineer and read a fair number of science books, this is the first time I have ever come across this topic which is a cross between number theory and behavioral economics. I found it very illuminating and well presented and not at all disorganized as the previous reviewer states. And I don't think a book should get a one star merely because another book covered the material well. The value of a book is how much the reader benefited from it. I am very intrigued by the topic as it brings together, game theory, number theory, and probability theory. Well done. Like it. Charan Langton complextoreal.com Added: I went back and looked at "machines that think" just out of curiosity. This is a book about history of artificial intelligence and in particular about the progress made in AI at a particular place (Dartmouth) and time (70's). The comparison is quite not appropriate. Now AI is a huge topic, far bigger than what this book is attempting to cover and describe that is the human biases and tendencies towards certain numbers particularly in light thresholds and constraints. When humans cheat they cheat in predictable ways, very much along what Dan Arielly talks about in his very excellent book "Predictably Irrational". The book discusses the Benford's Law, also called the First-Digit Law, which is the frequency distribution of digits in real data such as financial, tax returns, etc. In this distribution, the number 1 occurs as the leading digit about 30% of the time, while larger numbers occur in that position less frequently: 9 as the first digit less than 5% of the time. This law can be used to determine if the data being examined has been faked which tends to deviate from this distribution significantly. This because no matter how hard we try, we humans are unable to create truly random sequences of digits. We have too many predictable biases for certain numbers and in our attempt to appear non-random create patently non-random numbers be it on tax returns or others data such as faked experiment results. The author talks about in addition to out biases about certain numbers but also orders in which we pick things making "magic tricks" possible. So I am sticking to my rating.

I dispute the "practical" part of the title. By the nature of the book, different chapters sketching a superficial look at different subjects, it can't really be that practical. If you are involved in one of the subjects the book discusses, you may find one or two helpful tips, that could eke out some value for you. Despite not being altogether practical, the book is an interesting and thought provoking examination of a broad range of topics. The writing is direct, the concepts are understood by the author and communicated clearly.

The topics and content are interesting, and the examples the author uses are good. There's an obvious effort involved in the pre-work here. However, the chapters are quite repetitive, and at least half the book seems to be just filling material. Still enjoyed it and quote it regularly.

In the course of our lives, we are constantly having to make guesses and predictions regarding the things and situations around us. Good fortune in many areas of life can be augmented by becoming more skillful at guessing. In "Rock Breaks Scissors," author William Poundstone looks at numerous subjects to provide the reader tools to become a better guesser. Poundstone looks back at the mid-twentieth century at attempts to build machines that could make prognostications—those attempts encountered issues with finding truly random data with which to experiment. The author shows how random numbers are truly hard to manufacture, and looks at randomness in coin flips, rock paper scissors, true-false tests, and multiple-choice tests. Guessing of course comes into play very commonly in the world of gaming, and the volume explores guessing with regard to state lotteries, tennis, baseball, football, soccer, basketball and its 'hot hand' theory, card games, and office pools for basketball, football, and the Oscars. There are many applications of guessing and forecasting in the business world—Poundstone shows how businesses use guessing techniques to target customers, which results in issues of privacy and freedom coming into the discussion. Other areas broached include the strength of passwords, financial fraud, faked and manipulated numbers, Ponzi schemes, Big Data, retail prices, home prices, the stock market, and trends into the future. "Rock Breaks Scissors" is an entertaining and informative look at something with which we deal every day.

Some most unusual and incredibly valuable insights about fraud and hidden biases or patterns in numbers that people don't realize they have A must read for corporate financial people

A fascinating discussion of how to use a little bit of knowledge to do better than you would normally. It follows the game theory rule of maximizing your minimum gains. It starts off a little slow with some history of decision-making anecdotes, but these have a point and are interesting in their own right.

i have an interest in test taking and expected more from the book. there are some good ideas in it, but there is a lot of material in there just to increase the verbiage. it is however, an easy read.

The author has an incredible understanding of randomness and how most people don't understand it. More importantly, he imparts that understanding incredibly well. The reader will learn to defend against random I'm not a sports guy, but immediately after reading this book I entered an office pool for the FIFA World Cup and won first place and the pot (great ROI)! I've also updated my passwords and been winning more games of rock paper scissors. I highly recommend this insightful book.

probably more for an american audience.Lots of stuff about stats for american football and base ball.A few interesting points about how we make mistakes.

Great product, no complaints

Interesting but a bit light on practical content

Fun read, some interesting points and facts.